Unconvincing Bidding But Fair Contract

Dealer: North
Vuln: Love All
Scoring: Pairs

  1. spadeQ J 10 9
  2. heartA Q J 4 2
  3. diamondA Q
  4. club10 3
Green square in centre

Contract: 6diamond
Declarer: South
Lead: spade3

  1. spade
  2. heart9
  3. diamondJ 10 7 6 4 2
  4. clubA K J 9 6 2
West North East South
1heart Pass 2diamond
Pass 2spade Pass 3club
Pass 3NT Pass 4club
Pass 6diamond End
If you finesse in trumps then you can be sure of success if West has the king and fewer than four. On the other hand you can gain if East has a singleton king by playing the ace first.

Well?
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