Who to Trust

Pages: Page 5 of 6

Dealer: West
Vuln: Love All
Scoring: Pairs
Green square in centre
  1. spade10 9
  2. heartA Q 6
  3. diamondQ J 9 7
  4. clubA 10 6 5

Contract: 4spade
Declarer: North
Lead: diamondQ
  1. spadeA Q 6 4
  2. heartJ 5
  3. diamondA 6 5 2
  4. club8 7 4
West North East South
Pass 1spade Dble 2NT*
Pass 3spade~ Pass 4spade
Pass Pass Pass

* good raise to 3heart or better
~ sign off

If North's heartK is to be believed then his shape is 5-2-2-4 so you can afford to exit with a low club and hope to make at least two club tricks. The trouble is that North, who still has the luxury of two trumps in the dummy, can afford to drop the king from heartKxxx. In that case if his clubs are clubKx then a club switch from you will have presented him with a contract that should always be defeated.

So, how can you tell which is North's true shape?
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