Which Side Would You Back

Dealer: West
Vuln: Love All
Scoring: IMPs

  1. spadeK J 10 9 4 2
  2. heart10
  3. diamondK 4 2
  4. club10 6 4
  1. spadeQ 7 6
  2. heart9 3
  3. diamond10 8 6 5
  4. clubK 8 7 2
club diamond heart spade NT
N - - 2 2 1
S - - 1 2 1
E 1 1 - - -
W 1 1 - - -
Green square in centre
  1. spade8 3
  2. heartA Q 7 4
  3. diamondA Q J 3
  4. clubJ 9 3

Contract: 3spade
Declarer: North
Lead: spade3

  1. spadeA 5
  2. heartK J 8 6 5 2
  3. diamond9 7
  4. clubA Q 5
Double dummy analyser: makeable contracts
West North East South
Pass 2spade* Dble 3spade
Pass Pass Pass

* weak

. . . there is a defence that might been "obvious" to Anthony and his partner if they had an hour to spend looking at all four hands.

East should lead a club. What does declarer do? If he rises with the ace and draws trumps he could lose three diamonds plus a trick in each of the rounded suits. If he does not play trumps he's awkwardly placed in dummy rather than hand. I reckon he's probably best to play low (or the queen if East has led clubJ), when West wins and switches to diamond10! Three rounds of diamonds force dummy to ruff, and with three tricks in the bag I think East-West must still come to heartA and spadeQ. I'd be delighted if anyone out there can confirm this or come up with a different analysis.
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