Difference In Evaluation

Dealer: East
Vuln: Love All
Scoring: IMPs

  1. spadeQ 9 6 4
  2. heartA J 9 8 7 6 3
  3. diamond
  4. clubJ 10
  1. spadeK
  2. heartK 10
  3. diamondK Q J 9 5 2
  4. clubK 9 4 2
club diamond heart spade NT
N - - 3 3 -
S - - 3 3 -
E 1 3 - - -
W 1 3 - - -
Green square in centre
  1. spade10 8 7 3
  2. heartQ 5 2
  3. diamond6 4 3
  4. clubA Q 5

Contract: 4heart
Declarer: North
Lead: diamond3

  1. spadeA J 5 2
  2. heart4
  3. diamondA 10 8 7
  4. club8 7 6 3
Double dummy analyser: makeable contracts
West North East South
Pass Pass
3diamond 3heart Pass 3NT
Pass 4heart End
West should have played heartK at trick two to give declarer a chance to go wrong, whereby North might have played West for heartKQ alone. Forrester would have played heartQ 50% of the time with that holding, so the fact that he had not done so suggested that he either had heartK10, heartKx or heartK alone. Only with this first holding could North save a trick by exiting with heartJ. This is the Principle of Restricted Choice in action, and Hamman would probably have guessed right anyway.

Still, although we'll never know, even great players guess incorrectly sometimes!

P.S. Just to show how differently players can evaluate hands, West opened a strong 1club in the other room!
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