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Working on general principles for the more discerning declarer, I suspect any small mathematical difference could be overturned by the slightest awareness of the defenders strengths or weaknesses.

On this particular hand, imagine that you took the alternative line of winning at trick one and eventually ducking a club to East. How would you react if he exited with the 9? If you know East is a weak player, then the A is definitely with West, whereas if he is strong that conclusion is not available. Why? Because a strong East would realise that you'd be bonkers to play like this if you had a heart loser. Knowing himself to be end-played, he would lead away from his A, rather than trying to cash it.
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