Predicting the Fall

Dealer: North
Vuln: Game All
Scoring: Pairs

  1. spade9 6 3
  2. heartA K Q 10 8 3
  3. diamondA 9 5 3
  4. club
Green square in centre

Contract: 5diamond
Declarer: South
Lead: club5

  1. spade8
  2. heart6 2
  3. diamondK J 10 8 7
  4. clubK Q J 9 8
West North East South
1heart Pass 2diamond
Pass 4club* Pass 4diamond
Pass 4heart Pass 5diamond
Pass Pass Pass

* splinter, ace or void

Some Souths passed after this start to the auction. Some converted to 5diamond. Indeed, over 4club some had leapt to 5diamond - a sure sign to North that South was not interested in a slam. Nevertheless, at a few tables North was not taking no for an answer and punted 6diamond.

Playing in 5diamond on a club lead, how would you assess your chances of a good score?
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