Unprofitable Sacrifices

Pages: Page 3 of 4

Dealer: East
Vuln: N-S
Scoring: Pairs
  1. spadeA K Q 7 5
  2. heartJ 4
  3. diamond10 4
  4. clubJ 8 7 3
  1. spade10 9
  2. heart3 2
  3. diamondA Q 7 2
  4. clubK Q 9 4 2
club diamond heart spade NT
N - - 4 4 2
S - - 4 4 2
E 1 1 - - -
W 1 1 - - -
Green square in centre
  1. spadeJ 8 6
  2. heart10 8 6
  3. diamondJ 8 6 3
  4. clubA 6 5

Contract: 4heart
Declarer: South
Lead: clubK
  1. spade4 3 2
  2. heartA K Q 9 7 5
  3. diamondK 9 5
  4. club10
Double dummy analyser: makeable contracts
West North East South
Pass 1heart
Pass 1spade Pass 2heart
Pass 3heart Pass 4heart
Pass Pass Pass
Top marks if you judged to raise 2heart to 3heart. Had you decided on 2NT - certainly a viable alternative - South would probably bid 3NT on the basis that he had six running heart tricks. He would have been absolutely right, but East-West can cash five tricks first!

Both 4heart and 4spade are impregnable, but in 4heart East has to play well to overtake West's lead of clubK and switch to a diamond. If West has bid clubs, then East's play is more obvious as South can have no more than one club. This defence creates a third winner for the defence, but if East ducks at trick one, + 650 will result for North-South - a very good score.

Well, what was this faulty analysis?
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