Expert Finesses Work More Often

Pages: Page 5 of 5

Dealer: South
Vuln: E-W
Scoring: IMPs
  1. spadeJ 10 9
  2. heartQ 8 7 2
  3. diamondK Q
  4. clubA J 10 9
  1. spade8 7
  2. heartK J 10 5 3
  3. diamond9 8 3
  4. club8 6 2
club diamond heart spade NT
N 4 - 2 4 1
S 4 - 2 4 1
E - 2 - - -
W - 2 - - -
Green square in centre
  1. spadeK Q 4
  2. heart9 4
  3. diamondA J 10 7 6 5
  4. clubQ 7

Contract: 4spade
Declarer: South
Lead: diamond3
  1. spadeA 6 5 3 2
  2. heartA 6
  3. diamond4 2
  4. clubK 5 4 3
Double dummy analyser: makeable contracts
West North East South
1spade
Pass 2club 2diamond 3club
Pass 3spade Pass 4spade
Pass Pass Pass
So, how did Eisenberg guess that East held clubQ, even though East's likely distribution was 3-2-6-2?

The answer is that he didn't guess. Winning the third trump in dummy, he cashed heartQ discarding a club from hand, crossed back to hand with clubK, and. cashed two winning spades. Because of the threat in dummy West was forced to keep heartJ and came down to one club, whereupon declarer played a club to clubA to drop East's clubQ. West had been the subject of a show-up squeeze, but even though clubQ didn't show up with West, Eisenberg knew East would oblige. So, the answer to my original question is that good players' finesses work more often because they play for the drop when the finesses don't work!! (Well, almost).
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