Very Tough Discard

Dealer: West
Vuln: N-S
Scoring: IMPs

  1. spadeA 10 8 6 2
  2. heartK Q J 9 3
  3. diamond9 7 3
  4. club
  1. spadeJ 9 7 5
  2. heartA 6 5
  3. diamondA 5
  4. clubQ 8 7 5
club diamond heart spade NT
N - - 3 2 -
S - - 3 2 -
E 4 3 - - 1
W 4 4 - - 1
Green square in centre
  1. spadeK
  2. heart2
  3. diamondK Q 10 8 6 2
  4. club10 9 4 3 2

Contract: 4heart
Declarer: South
Lead: diamondA

  1. spadeQ 4 3
  2. heart10 8 7 4
  3. diamondJ 4
  4. clubA K J 6
Double dummy analyser: makeable contracts
West North East South
1diamond* 2diamond~ 4diamond 4heart
Pass Pass Pass

* 'prepared'
~ Michaels (majors)

When given this problem a couple of days ago, I got it wrong in exactly the same way as West did at the table - by throwing a small club. The declarer was ex European Champion Graham Kirby, and he proceeded to ruff a small club high. heartK from the table was ducked, but West won heartQ and exited with a third trump. Winning in hand, Kirby cashed three club tricks while clubQ happily dropped, throwing spades from dummy. As it was necessary to assume that East has singleton honour for the contract to succeed, Kirby was left to judge whether West had an initial thirteen or eleven count. Was West's spade holding more likely to be Jxxx or Kxxx? Kirby decided on the former and played low to spadeA to make his contract.

Ought West have done better? If declarer has merely spadeKx and heart10874 a spade discard would be fatal. Perhaps an over-ruff and trump exit would have been best. Very tough indeed.
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