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So, the verdict is that South can always make 4. Actually, no. There is one winning defence that you DD experts will have spotted. In the lines where East wins the Q early and switches to the Q, North must duck or the timing is wrong for the en passant line. However, when North ducks, East immediately switches to the king of spades. South cannot end-play anyone because he has already ducked a club and must lose two trumps. He can't ruff two minor cards in hand or he promotes East's trumps, and he does not have the entries to ruff both heart losers in dummy. In short, he's stuffed.

I spent weeks trying to adjust the club suit so that all lines would work. It just isn't possible. It was all South's fault anyway. He should have passed 4 doubled.
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